The hottest rubber stability maintenance measures

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Last week, as the main rubber producing countries prepared to hold a meeting to maintain the stability of rubber prices, Shanghai Rubber stopped falling and rebounded, but it was constrained by the current weak supply and demand, and even today, with the increasing lightweight requirements, investors are increasingly worried about the European debt situation, creating a volatile pattern of the rubber market. However, at the weekend meeting, the main producing countries decided to give up intervention, which frustrated the positive expectations of the market, while the European debt crisis continued to deepen. The author believes that Shanghai Jiaotong may hit a new low in the later period of the year

the measures to maintain stability failed, and the rubber price will continue to decline in the later period.

in the early period, Thailand set the bottom line of natural rubber price at 24500 yuan/ton, which makes us always emphasize that there will be support at 24500. However, the main rubber producing countries thought it was unnecessary to take measures to maintain stability last weekend, and their expectations failed, so the support position in the later period will no longer exist. This result is also expected. Due to the huge economic losses caused by the floods in Thailand, it is very unlikely to allocate material and financial resources to stabilize the rubber price in this dilemma. On the contrary, when the floods recede, it will speed up exports to obtain funds. For Indonesia and Malaysia, it is only a verbal appeal. Due to the impact of the venting of the stability maintenance meeting, market pessimism spread again. In the later stage, the listing of raw materials from major producing countries such as Southeast Asia accelerated, but the downstream demand entered the off-season, and the suppressive effect became more prominent

with the weakness of the macro environment, the downstream demand of China's Tianjiao may decline again.

the European debt crisis is intensifying. After Italy, the yields of French and Spanish government bonds are also rising, and rating agencies frequently downgrade their credit ratings, exacerbating the risk of economic recession in the eurozone. China may be pleased that the initial value of HSBC's PMI in November was 48.0, which returned to the bottom of the 50 divide between prosperity and decline. A state-owned material can turn the explosive power of 1kg explosive into intangible. Manufacturing activities slowed down significantly again. The uncertainty of the market has increased unabated. Under the shadow of the economic recession, downstream demand continues to decline

the bottom line of China's automobile growth of 5% this year will also be completely lost. Due to the economic slowdown, this figure will be reduced to 3% in November. In the fourth quarter, the orders of tire factories decreased significantly, the pressure of all steel tire factories was particularly prominent, and the industry generally reduced production. In the later period, the inventory of tire factories will continue to rise. As winter approaches, tires enter the seasonal consumption off-season, and the later period is not optimistic. The weakness of demand makes the inventory in the domestic Qingdao Free Trade Zone show no signs of falling, and remains at 200000 tons. In the future, due to the deterioration of supply and demand, there is still room for decline in the later stage. After the price of Shanghai Jiao fell below 24500, it is very easy to reach 20000 points

to sum up, the main reasons for the slowdown in commodity decline are the expectation that the current domestic tightening policy may change direction and the difficulty of maintaining good data support for Liping Mining Group in the United States under the condition of continuous losses recently. However, the market focus is still focused on the situation in the euro zone and the action of the European Central Bank. The market is still full of variables. Once the European debt problem is ignited again, it will contribute to the decline in rubber prices. At present, the negative supply and demand pattern has intensified. Domestic tire enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing natural rubber, it is difficult to digest the inventory in the bonded area, and the spot price continues to fall. In addition, the main producing countries have failed to put forward price intervention measures, which has also dampened the confidence of the market to be long at the last point. In the later stage, Shanghai rubber will once again open the room for decline. From the perspective of the disk, the high point in the early stage continues to move down, and the medium-term average above has been suppressed. It is difficult for Shanghai glue to change the trend without obvious positive stimulation. In the later stage, the price of Shanghai glue will fall below 24500 again, heading straight to the range

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